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Trump Financial Escape Plan

I wrote months ago that the money trail would lead to the undoing of Trump’s family such that someone would come to Trump and tell him that they had him. The rulings this week, by two Federal Courts and a newly enacted NY State law will divulge a lot of his finances, both tax wise and bank loans wise. The bank loans will all be secured by documents that are filed such that the ultimate debts and security will be exposed. I believe it is likely that Russian interest will be dead center on the debts and the losses on the taxes will be tied to various real estate failures claimed.

Meanwhile, the US is stepping up military pressure on Iran, though there is not much agreement, and certainly no clear threat other than the one the activities of the US is creating as reaction to what Trump is ordering. Why? Well, if Trump is in trouble, perhaps he things a war will cut off all this other stuff. I is so Nationalistic in the path chosen that I can’t understand why no one else sees it. A distraction? Ouch that might just hurt a lot.

Just like my earlier prediction, this is now out there. Let’s see what happens.

Car Dancing

This is hard to put “down” simply because I realize that it flings open the door to a room that is not visited by many. I am a person that when it comes to doing certain things that seem to be the proverbial “right” thing to do in a tough circumstance, I will do so without any thought. It is entirely intuitive and I could only not do it by forcefully arguing with myself. That step of arguing with my thought happens when there can still be a choice, but on some issues there is no choice to be made, life for life is a trade you accept in support of the end game that is being laid out by circumstanes. (Does anyone get that? I wrote it a few days ago and I see the path, but I also see that I did not articulate every step on that path, as I run the path and don’t care about individual steps, trusting on my feet to take care of that.)

I have not died yet, which is why putting this down is weird because I only know about my status by living it out. Here are some of the steps I have taken, as I look back.

I learned to drive in Detroit. It was 1969 free to hit the road on 12:01 the day I turned 16. I had been driving with an adult licensee in the car for a month, but I was free after that moment. I had access to a ‘67 Mustang convertible, red with a black top and black interior, 289 two barrel, automatic, standard AM/FM radio. (Later I added an 8 track on a mount under the dash with two 10” speakers tucked into the back seat corners.

I will summarize what I became for you, then maybe give you examples of how I got there. When I drove, in those days and as I drive now if I don’t tell myself not to, every single moment was like a Nascar race. That is what happened on the streets of Detroit in the late ‘60s early ‘70s. I lived there, schooled there, had the basketball Jones there and worked there in the decade of the seventies. I even had a CDL there.

What I learned was that at any moment a dance may develop between 2 or more cars. The Dance could be on a Freeway, a multi lane highway, city street or even a neighborhood as you headed to a commercial street. What I learned on a fundamental level was that you better not enter onto the dance floor unless you were ready to contend with bad behavior. What I also learned is that some time you DO have to be the baddest to get through an event, but other times you merely have to be bad enough to show the steps you are taking are valid. As baddest, you make your move and lead. Sometimes you can show the baddest that you can run even and that is all they need to see. Seriously, in Detroit when you raced then at least half the time you ended up waving to the guy you raced (on the freeway/highway) or even talking to them at the next stop light if it was a city street.

So, I have never wrecked as the result of a dance, but on two occasions the other dancer wrecked. They wrecked because they were either not paying immediate attention, made a bad assumption, or just didn’t realize that my dancing ability was excellent. (In real life I always had good footwork when playing sports, or running from bullies as a kid, and perhaps that footwork analysis was applied by my brain when I Car Danced.)

What brings this all to mind is a recent incident that focused my understanding of my behavior, especially relevant to the behavior of others. Now, to be fair, I have a bumper sticker, square in the middle of my bumper that reads “Detroit Law”, so anyone with that view should begin to realize the paradigm with which they are dealing. Here’s the thing, well one of the things, I have learned: the adrenaline people get from a real or perceived affront to their “right” to a spot on the road sends them right to “fight or flight”. Further, those with a pick up or an SUV assume the “size” of their vehicle and almost always choose to fight, or at least not to step back.

When I am driving, if I size up a tight spot approaching me I will intuitively begin to evaluate alternatives available to me, fast, slow, change lane, etc. The other day it was 10 in the morning so and I was on a one way, two lane, city street with cars parked on both sides. As I came around a blind turn in the left lane, adjacent to what turned out to be an SUV (it had not registered with me except to be in a lane that was not of immediate concern to me) the alternative evaluation started on its own.

A good block ahead was a car moving much slower, no other cars involved. I was already past the nose of the guy next to me and I knew if I goosed it I would go around the car in front of me and back to my lane without stress to him. (Except…) So I goosed it and put my blinker on at the same time, I was committed and had plenty of room for the move, but apparently when he saw my blinker he wanted his lane regardless. He was too late, but he came right up on my bumper because he goosed it anyway. Then he got really stupid thanks to the adrenaline.

Before I could go left he went around me and back in front of me. Since the left lane was still clearly available, I went there. But, oh, he was not done with the adrenaline. He jack knifed in front of me and his door opened. I sized him up, younger, lighter in weight and maybe a little shorter than me. I was out at least as fast as him and walked to meet him face to face. This is what I told him, before he could say a thing, “You made a decision, I made a decision and you made another decision. Are you going to make a third decision right here?” By this time, his brain was registering my body language and realizing it was not SUV v Station Wagon any more. He turned and walked away. In Detroit, back in the day, that would have been the end of it, but on this day I knew I had him and I couldn’t resist adding, “I thought not” as he walked. (Never do that in Detroit, by the way.)

Some day I will be shot, but heck, I am old and that may save some less culpable person from being shot by the same guy. Choosing not to behave in a manner I think appropriate, in the immediate circumstance, is not a page in my book. Most people would have to make a hard choice to act my way and would never make that choice, wondering how people like me do that. (I have three times, at least, faced extreme physical harm to protect someone less empowered than me, on city streets, a parking lot and a park.) Wow, told you it was hard to put down.

NeighborDaveSays:
Not everyone can be Hemingway
(not even Hemingway)

A Fundamental Snap

This is intended to be observational in furtherance of opening a door to a room of which I don’t think many people of a certain background would ever be aware otherwise. If you grew up in a middle-class neighborhood of largely stable mom and pop families who were all dancing to the rhythm of the so-called middle-class world, then you may never have been exposed to the room in which people with Attachment Disorder or Separation Anxiety live their life. As such, you would have to learn what is meant by the experiences of those who live in this other room, to which I am going to open the door.

In the room with which you are familiar, which is the one I grew up in. You came home from the hospital and your mom took care of you on a nearly immediate basis. As you proceeded through the first 6 days of your life, that connection was never at risk and most likely that connection remained until your mom passed away. Whether that relationship was good or bad in the long run is a different room from that to which we are headed. The point is that you had an attachment to your mom from the start and that was never interrupted. You also had attachment to others, like dad and siblings, maybe grandparents, but where you learned, on a fundamental level, that an attachment was a valuable and trustworthy “thing” was from that unbroken connection. In your world, there was never an alternative that had to be reckoned with.

OK, let’s look at an alternative. Let’s say you were taken from the hospital by Dad and never saw mom again. Well, if dad steps in as the attachment that can be trusted, maybe the disruption of the original attachment during the first feedings of life, fundamental as it is, does not mean that much. But what if dad takes you to “grandma’s house” and you are left in her care. Again, if the attachment to at least one adult is in place, perhaps you have not left the trustworthy attachment room yet. Let’s say, though, that dad fades for whatever reason, then grandma fades as well. Let’s say you end up in Foster Care because the adult responsible for you fails. All of those are attachments that have been broken.

Now, here is the real rub. Let’s say you are only three years old. Your brain is entirely intuitive, no ability to intellectualize the situation. No COPING SKILLS developed at all in your brain. As a child you simply learn, on a fundamental level, that ANY attachment cannot be trusted. And, the defense that comes to a child’s brain is thus: I cannot allow an attachment to form because when it ends, and it will invariably end, the pain is something that I don’t want to face. The only choice I have is to be sure I don’t attach so that I assure that I avoid the pain of the loss that I am sure will happen. That is the kid survival response.

The subject is much deeper, but if you have any sense of empathy all, you are now peeking into the room of those that face some form of the circumstance I set out. Kids that have their attachments broken learn a way of life well different from what most of society takes for granted.

Now reckon with this: The US Government, on purpose, and as conceived and promoted by Stephen Miller, decided to purposefully disrupt the attachments of kids from their parent at our border. Why? Well we don’t have to guess, because Miller actually promoted that it was for the purpose of teaching people not to come here. REALLY, are those kids mere pawns in his game? Yes.

If you go to Arraignment Court in any city in America, you will see Attachment Disorder in many of the defendants, and they are not immigrants, but those here who have grown up in a different room from that familiar to the part of society who is in control of the rhythm of society. Without attachments, society has very little sway on them, so why in the world would the government voluntarily and with knowledge a foresight choose such a path for kids in exchange for teaching their parents something they won’t “get” anyway?

Little Big Horn?

Trump is not unlike General George Armstrong Custer. (Custer was last in his graduating class of West Point and only got a chance in the army at all because he graduated in 1862, in the middle of the Civil War.) Really, if you read a summary of their lives, say in Wikipedia, things jump out, and remember, Trump’s Little Big Horn is yet to occur.

They both had yellow hair upon which they put too much emphasis, but that is a superficial indicator. Both exhibit the trait of the initial overwhelming of a foe that might be surprised and give up without fully ascertaining the best path to success. Here is the common problem: Once that technique is displayed and learned it will not work.

In the combined Native American tribes that joined up to face Custer, he faced fighters who were being kicked off their land because gold was found on it. WTF they thought, we got nothing else to do, so let’s see if we can use the white man’s rhythm against him. They would not challenge the initial power of the 7th Calvary, but looked to the long path they could walk better. They lured Custer into thinking he had the surprise and the numbers. Oops.

Trump, in dealing with North Korea and China, not to mention South Korea since they are directly impacted by both of those other fronts, does not understand that their history is based upon more than 4 centuries of practice, where even those places from which the USA rhythm develops is maybe 2.5 centuries, and most directly about one century. “They” see things in terms of a much longer period than do we, and Trump is on even a more limited time frame of understanding. Heck, for him 6 days is a long look ahead. For the Chinese, 6 years is NOTHING and you can bet that North Korea is in a similar mindset. As with Custer’s Native Americans, what else do they have to occupy them?

Oh, and don’t get me started on Russia. Heck, their entire way of governance “fell” 30 years, or so, ago. So, the Oligarchs, newly created despots of local import, can easily out wait and mess with any US President whom considers him self their buddy. Same is true for the Ruling Family of Saudi Arabia. Seriously, they are ruled by a family.

Trump sees himself in the same light, but this is the U S A, thank you. We will expose him, or Mueller will, and it will be up to US, for the first time in history, to show a different historical outcome than has happened in history when a Nationalist tries to leverage the people against the people. For the first time in history, the majority of the population, as compared to all of the minorities of the population added together, is not 90% of the population.

One thing we have here, though it is not well recognized yet: While the US pays homage to a racial heritage of Euro American settlers, our Constitution allows that they should not be the ultimate determiners of the rhythm by which the country dances. We are intended, by the Constitution, to be a combined rhythm. We are slowly learning that by the variance that is in the air waves as we operate. Out in parts of the country, the rhythm of the people living there is still largely isolated and comfortable for them, but the internet will change that faster than in the past. In the cities, and elsewhere now thanks to the internet, the white Euro Americans who are not rich are finding that those others who are not rich have a valid rhythm. Trump and Custer apply one sole rhythm that was comfortable for them, but could not stand scrutiny of others with whom they came in contact. Just wait and see.

Well, that’s enough for now.

California Ugly

I played a variety of sports growing up, from little league, on the playground, in fields between houses, parks in big cities, cage courts on city streets, the beach in California and in between those named locations, in the Detroit, NY, Chicago, farm country YMCAs, the Shore, college campus big 10 and Sec. In the process, I played a lot of pick up sports, often when I knew no one else in the game, or maybe one person that brought me to the team on occasion. I have a book of knowledge built by such experience and that led me to come up with the title of this thought piece, creating the term and telling why I think it helps explain Tom Brady, maybe even to himself a bit.

Everywhere that I played, regardless of the sport, a level of toughness had to be learned, even if it was innate to a person. They had to know how to apply what they were in a manner that was best for them. Surely, if you are the biggest, your choice is to do what you want and enforce it with brute strength. Not every place had one such guy, but you would see them a lot. Usually, though, you had to find how toughness was accepted on the ground of play in the moment, maybe from within or maybe as influenced by the outside. It appears to me that Brady may be reflecting how toughness is set forth in CA, with a great deal of Northern California more than So Cal.

Here is the thing, though, that is true of any game, region, city: fine tuning aside, the person has to be honest to be accepted as the path keeps rolling out in their vicinity. I am not going to set out the bullet points of California Ugly, as they are just there and can be beyond itemization. Here is what goes with the ugly in every location at which I have found myself. You enforce the rules of the game, always right up to the line where you could be chastised for a bad application of a rule. You must be honest in the application to yourself in order to demand the same from others.
I will give you an example: in a basketball game at a court of Jefferson, not far from the environment in which Jalen Rose was raised. I was at a court I had played on, as a clear outsider, for about 4 weeks, let’s say age 23 or 24. I stopped a guy as he came down the lane, beating him to the spot he needed by a clear time, blocking the ball and knocking him down. He squared off and I asked why. Then I added, “that is the way we play here.” The other guys on both teams nodded and voiced their agreement and the situation was over.

Why? Because I played Detroit Ugly, honestly. I had all validity by getting him face on and getting the ball both, so I had the high ground in the application of standards set in Detroit. That changed across the country, but it held up well if there was a discussion. Some places would accept getting a guy from behind, but not in Detroit.

That is the Ugly that Tom Brady exercises, adapted to the level/means of demonstration practiced in Northern California, then honed with his experiences at Michigan when he was shown a further Paradigm by an honest coach and honest system to which he had to adapt. It was probably the first forced adaption in his life, but the people at Michigan were familiar with the transitions from all over the country, now the world, such that there was coaching that was applied, even his specialized and acknowledged “head” coach there. I would guess that his “original” toughness was based largely upon ripping people verbally, but that is pure imagination, and may be my prejudicial application of Country Club Ugly, since that is almost always verbal. That can never work at the highest level of football, basketball, soccer, etc. and he either always practiced or learned that the team had to know that he would accept pain for advancement of his way. Payback, though honest, would be a bitch though for every lesson that was delivered in a manner such that it seemed there was a request for behavioral response, though not immediate.

I am just telling the public so they can enjoy it on a new level, maybe accepting a bit better, his paradigm, California Ugly. Of course, a lot has been reinforced by Boston Ugly, but that is a whole nother can of worms.

Trump Cries “Wolf”

(Take what follows for what it is. I have always seen things developing ahead of others who were immersed in the same play in which I found myself. The following is the current take that is obvious to me and which I think will play out. We will see.)

Trump wants to be an Oligarch. He may not even realize that on a conscious level, but that is the path upon which he finds himself. The following influences all line him up that way. First, the Russians as they did seek to, and eventually did, buy influence with him and manipulate voting segments by fraudulent social media behavior. Then, the Saudi Prince and his cronies have always bought influence in US politics and with him they use his properties, in a silly attempt to “hide” the behavior, plus properties he has elsewhere in the world. All of it is discoverable, though. Then there is the guy from Breitbart and Stephen Miller, who are preaching the Nationalism tune to him and having him behave in such ways as gets a certain segment on his bus and convinced that outsiders need to be beat off their attack of the way of life we know. That is an easy sell to his base. It is also the same as has happened in history.

The Russians, if the US took even a minor step toward Nationalizing by Emergency Order would be just overjoyed. It would give them a green light to take over Ukraine entirely, as the US would be looking the other way. Meanwhile, we were going to leave Syria, leaving that entirely to Russia, and leaving our helpers, the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey, who also has a leader that would love Nationalism and has been embraced by Trump. Oh, then look at the loose leash on Saudi Arabia, allowing them to continue the Nationalist behavior they had always done as a Kingdom.

Note to all, the term Oligarch has arisen to use in language in the last 30 years or so, as a direct result of the concentration property ownership, both real and personal properties such a corporate and bank stock, by a bunch of different folks who carved up the USSR upon its demise. Putin is one of the key players, but the others are well known to historians and people who have been paying attention. That is who is into Trump, but he believes that he will be there equal, then their superior. Yes, he actually sees himself teaching them a thing or two. Here is the deal though, Putin and the Prince are killers, Putin directly himself back in the day, and Trump could not do a real act. They know that.

The Congress will have to step up and stop him, unless they wait for Mueller and others. Eventually, mark it down, the Senate will override a veto of a bill that will neuter Trump, then the real trial starts, unless Trump pleads out. The current dance is all to misdirect from the Mueller facts, which Trump people can see as the writing on the wall, and which will be out soon enough. The “emergency” he is threatening is, however, enough to trigger a must move by Congress and the Senate will be dragged to the right place, one by one. The first to leave have started signaling their move.

The claim of emergency, emergency, etc. over the last several days is Trump building up belief that there is an actual national emergency because of the lack of wall. The “facts” proposed by the President and those that would buy in and sell his story, are all a misrepresentation to the extent that the evil concern is actually tied to a lack of “wall”. Sure, there is human trafficking  , drugs coming across, etc. but they are happening at ports of entry for the most part. Sure, there are trickles over the open border, but the big masses are by other means. Cross examination of anyone claiming otherwise would show the fail, and everyone in Congress knows. They will have to step up and call out the person who is calling wolf when there is no wolf. Let’s hope we don’t miss the real wolves: Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Going National(ist)

I can’t believe that what follows has not been articulated on TV or the internet. IF it has, just sign me on then.

The Trump machine played further cards in the need for what I call, Let’s Go Nationalist. Sure, that seems ridiculous that they could actually hope to get to the end of that path, but heck, even they didn’t think they would get elected.

Then Putin came in and he described a world in which the US was no longer responsible for everyone. It could look inward and allow the rest of the world to straighten itself out. Putin may has gone so far as to tell Trump that he would be one of the Oligarchs to germinate in the nationalistic state that the US could become under him. Putin would point out that the world could be split up and that conflicts would awalsy exist such that they just need to be managed and he could take care of that in Asia.

They let Stephen Miller out today, arguing with a guy on CNN, but really just spouting Nationalistic talking points, Text Book and it will resonate with the base, the base will be snapping at the bit once the real possibility of going nationalist comes forward.  Can’t it be seen?

All of the moves continue without façade. Look at the removal/lessoning of sanctions to company owned by Russian Oligarch friends of Putin. Really, it is blatant and why is it slowed.

Perhaps the Mattis resignation will finally get the attention of those that have had blinders on, or expressly looked away from the bad behavior.

Here’s the thing: If we can last long enough, Mueller has “the nuts” in the Trump legal matters. I have said for a long time that there would be a record because of Trumps business model. He has to borrow and borrowers will secure the lending public filings, as the only way to secure the depts and lead the line. That paper trail, as it used to be known, will be easy to find and easy to show the financial stakes Trump has a stake (probably both Russian and China, with, perhaps, China being much more passive as is there want). I know that once Mueller shows his cards, if he doesn’t get someone to whisper to Trump the nature of what he faces such that a deal is struck, the cards will show a direct and express Conflict of Interest.

Putin laughs either way, already being effective at forever changing the character of the US. We will be able to overcome this, but the path back will be harder, more expensive and take longer the longer we wait to call his bluff. He is not “gone” in a mental sense, he is merely selling us all out, with purpose and without qualms, it appears.

There are people that get it, but no one is articulating it. Look, the middle 80% of society, those that are not the smartest and not the most stupid, need it articulated many times before their cognitive dissonance is even close to “un-done”. I have no voice that can be heard. I am old and don’t know how to “sell” via the internet. Anyone that agrees with what I put forth, can you get it out to he public?

I have addressed commercial disputes with largely successful results around the world, after litigating them in the US. I am a lateral thinker who has picked up behavior knowledge in rooms all around the world. I have seen Trump people, not to mention Putin people and all other kinds in those travels. The general citizen of the US lives in a paradigm that cannot begin to understand that the rest of the world does not dance to our rhythm. There is a unique constantly changing rhythm as you move around the world, including long term strategy on many levels that would be poo poo’d in the US. Trump’s behavior, though, is childlike in that world and they all laugh at the technique he employs, which is text book simple.

If they replace Mattis with a Nationalist, we will look a lot like Germany in the early 1930s, expressly including the attacks on the news purveyors

The fact tat Ann Coultor shamed Trump and that resulted in him reaffirming his flop negotiating technique by re-flopping. She pointed out his original flop, and in so doing everyone of her listeners looked and saw that what Trump had flopped with the cameras running had shrunk away. He flops again, but it will once again shrink. His fans won’t get it, they will see him as gallant in the attempt and coulter will leave him off the hook. The misdirection is the thing, for now, but the Russian thing and the resultant move to nationalism fits into this scenario. After all, the wall is for protection of the country. That is the song and 35% of the voters will sing that until their voice fades. Just look at the tobacco farmers that sang for the tobacco companies, who now don’t need them and don’t care about them.

(I know, I don’t connect all the dots. That is because they are obvious to me. If you don’t see the connection, I can explain it if you articulate the gap you can’t resolve.)

Bullet Points:

  • Actions in multiple courts, multiple defendants, multiple aspects of what Mueller is uncovering.
  • Clear ties to Russia’s behavior exist, though not fleshed out in detail – yet.
  • Removal of Sanctions against Rusal, a Russian company owned to the tune of 70% by an Oligarch named Deripaska through his ownership of EN+.
  • Deripaska is a long time “buddy” of Putin, and has a relationship with VTB Bank, controlled by Kremlin
  • Pull out of Syria
  • Made deal with Senate to avoid shutdown.
  • Called out by Ann Coulter,
  • Called in House Republicans and came up with the charade of a new “bill” to go back to the Senate.
  • Put Stephen Miller out to articulate the talking points that make the Nationalist overture to the base, based upon the “wall”, which was given up by Trump until Coulter challenged his manhood. (She knows how to negotiate the way he understands, challenging his flop style.)
  • CNN releases signed Letter of Intent with respect to Hotel in Moscow, shows terms, etc. (Read this letter as a lawyer and see the path laid out. Trump’s multiple entities in the letter take no financial risk at all and it is couched in terms of a Trademark lease, but there are conditions that require the Leasee to hire Trump affiliates to operate, market, etc. the property. Nice lawyering, but would not hold up in that form in a face to face negotiation, especially with the Trump Flop Technique. (Heck, maybe it would with a $5mm bribe suite.))

Here is the move: Leave Asia to Russia, and maybe China. Leave our allies alone and shaking their heads. Reinforce with the base that everyone is out to get Trump. Appeal to the base that drastic threats appear and drastic response is necessary. Use the Wall and the nasties from outside to cause Nationalism appeal. Putin is Hitler and Trump will be his Mussolini.

Here’s the chance the rest of us have: Mueller has documented evidence of Trumps debts to Russian banks because banks always secure their loans, especially with Trump. There are also, probably, Chinese banks, but the Chinese are less overt, playing both Trump and Putin at the same time.

Clear as a bell to me and I don’t understand why sophisticated Republicans would not jump from the Bus Trump is driving toward the Nationalism cliff. (He has been told that he will be one of the Oligarchs for the new America.

And this week, we are talking about the shut down and the military impact of the withdrawal. NO ONE is talking about the impact of the quitting of Syria, and that is what it is, quitting, or the removal of sanction process that is now in a 30 waiting (and comment) period.

WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE.

Oops, Stephen King gets it based upon something I saw, I think on Facebook. Nice!